Bitcoin’s odds are „changing rapidly,“ says Skew as one analyst highlights the „organic“ nature of the current trend.
Bitcoin (BTC) now has a 7% chance of surpassing its historical high of USD 20,000 by the end of this year, the data shows.
According to data from chain analysis source Skew, as of October 22, Bitcoin options were moving in favor of continuing to see higher prices in 2020.
BTC’s probabilities „change the price quickly
At the time of publication of this article, the probability of BTC/USD reaching USD 20,000 or more by 31 December 2020 was 7%, with 11% for USD 18,000.
By March 2021, more bets said that Bitcoin would once again reach USD 20,000 (14%), while the figure for June 2021 was 18%.
On social networks, Skew said that the probability data was „changing rapidly“ after Bitcoin reached USD 13,200.
As Cointelegraph reported, the mood among institutional investors remains biased upwards despite the higher price levels. The latest CME Group Trader Engagement report, for example, showed that institutions hold a large number of long positions rather than short BTCs.
On Wednesday, statistician Willy Woo noted that huge amounts of liquidity had been withdrawn from the speculative arena by investors wishing to hold their currencies for the long term. Woo described the event, which involved 250,000 BTCs (USD 3.24 billion), as „the mother of all pickups“.
„Where did the supply come from? 250,000 currencies ( over USD 2 billion) have been withdrawn from the speculative shares of the cash exchanges to HODL,“ he wrote on Twitter.
„This is where the supply has come from so far, and it was the mother of all collections, the previous bull runs were driven by small collections“.
A completely organic trend
The organic nature of the behaviour that led to the price increase has not gone unnoticed. For Charles Edwards, founder of digital asset manager Capriole, this was a unique phenomenon in the twelve years of Bitcoin’s life.
„This rise is organically driven by spot exchanges. There is almost no resistance in the order book,“ he tweeted on Thursday.
„Yes, things can change quickly, it’s crypto. But this is a very healthy move. Something we’ve never seen in #bitcoin beyond 12,000 before“ However, Bitcoin futures trading volume has also nearly tripled in the last two days compared to levels seen earlier this month as the price of Bitcoin rose above $12,000.